China’s economic growth may be looking at another rough quarter
September 26, 2019 @ 13:08 UTC
China’s economic numbers in the last few months have disappointed expectations but the worst is not over — analysts are expecting third quarter data to come in even weaker than before. A quarterly survey by China Beige Book released Wednesday showed that growth slowed in the third quarter while debt levels soared.
“Nationally, revenue, profits, output, sales volumes, and job growth all slowed from a quarter ago, as did both domestic and export orders,” the report said, citing China Beige Book’s survey of more than 3,300 Chinese businesses. Critically, the firm found that debt levels remain on the rise, with bond issuance climbing to its highest in the history of the survey.
The ratio of the so-called “shadow banking” to overall borrowing was also at the second-highest on record. Shadow banking refers to unregulated lending activities that are often present higher risks as they are subjected to less regulatory oversight. Zhang expects gross domestic product to increase 6.1% in the third quarter and 6.2.% in the fourth, bringing the annual total to between 6.2% and 6.3%.
Trade tensions with the U.S., once China’s largest trading partner, have significantly added to economic uncertainty in the last year. Many analysts are also quick to note that much of China’s economic slowdown is due to domestic reasons, such as the government’s attempt two years ago to reduce reliance on debt for growth.